Probability in Flames of War is always a tricky thing to manage and predict accurately. Varying conditions (Training/Concealment/Range Modifiers) coupled with successive die rolls (Roll to Hit/Pen/Destroy) multiplied by a volume of fire make accurate statistical predictions virtually impossible to perform on the fly. A number of players advocate the use of "easy math" when it comes to predicting die results often called "Expected Value" or "EV" for short. While I also suggest employing EV calculations for in-game tactical decisions, I feel that it is equally important to understand that these "Expected Values" can vastly understate or overstate your chances of success.
|Consider your success...(puts on sunglasses)....understated - yeaaaaaaaaahhh!|